Stop waiting for the ‘right market’ to sell your business—it probably doesn’t exist.
Small business valuations have been remarkably steady at 2.5-3x SDE for over a decade.
The charts above show median sale multiples from 10,000+ Main Street transactions (blue line) against US real GDP growth, the S&P 500’s average P/E, and US 10-year Treasury yields (dotted red lines).
What the Data Suggests About SMB Valuations
They’re not tied to economic cycles. Multiples remained steady even through big COVID swings.
They’re not correlated with public markets. The S&P’s movements don’t translate over to Main Street.
They’re not responsive to interest rates. Fed policy and rate expectations appear to have limited impact.
What This Means for You
Whether you’re buying or selling, the best time to transact is when it aligns with your goals—not when you think the market is ‘good.’
Timing the macro environment matters far less than you might think.